A rating held steady doesn’t mean the risk is gone. On August 21, 2026, Moody’s confirmed Cameroon’s sovereign rating at Caa1 with a stable outlook — but Caa1 remains a speculative-grade category, signalling a high risk of default.
The agency flags three compounding weaknesses: tight liquidity, public debt expected to reach 45% of GDP in 2026, and political risk it describes as a ‘chaotic presidential transition.’ Growth has been revised down to 3.4%, and the budget deficit is now expected at 2.5% of GDP — partly due to fuel-subsidy costs swollen by higher oil prices.
Cameroon keeps refinancing maturing debt, but access to the regional market is tightening. Moody’s puts the country’s 2026 financing needs at around 10% of GDP, only half of which was covered by the end of June.
The state’s takeover of power distributor ENEO’s financial obligations adds further strain to the public balance sheet — a tension between stimulus and budget discipline shared by several CEMAC countries.
Cameroonian SMEs are already feeling the effect: credit remains expensive and scarce. For the state, talks with the IMF grow more urgent as fiscal room keeps narrowing.
Holding the rating avoids an immediate downgrade; it settles nothing. Without structural reforms or better financial governance, Moody’s warns, market confidence will stay hostage to the political calendar.
