The world is entering an era of unprecedented geo‑economic competition, according to the Global Risks Report 2024 of the World Economic Forum (WEF), published on 10 January 2024. Based on responses from 1,500 experts, the report highlights a retreat of international cooperation and a rise in trade, diplomatic and military tensions.
For Africa, these global dynamics translate into specific vulnerabilities: dependence on exports of critical minerals (cobalt, lithium, rare earths) and monetary fragility, especially in countries using the CFA franc. Climate shocks, already evident with the 2020 floods in Niger, exacerbate these challenges.
Fifty‑four percent of experts surveyed by the WEF anticipate a “turbulent” global climate over the next two years, up from 39 % in 2023. Geo‑economic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk for 2026, with 30 % of experts saying it could trigger a global crisis by 2024. The WEF warns of a race for critical minerals that could turn African nations into arenas of commercial or military pressure. Emerging markets with weak currencies, many of them in Africa, are especially exposed to monetary‑sovereignty risks. The 2020 floods in Niger illustrate the consequences of extreme climate events, a risk that is rising for 2026.
The geo‑economic confrontation, the WEF’s top‑ranked risk, reflects a logic of fragmentation in global value chains. For Africa, this dynamic creates a double bind: on one hand, an opportunity to monetize its mineral resources in the energy transition; on the other, a risk of marginalisation if industrial powers pursue direct control or substitution strategies.
Extreme climate events, the report’s third risk, act as vulnerability multipliers. African food and urban systems, already under strain, could experience cascading shocks, with repercussions for political and social stability. Disinformation, the fifth risk, amplifies these tensions by eroding trust in institutions.
In Cameroon and Central Africa, the race for critical minerals could accelerate foreign investment in mining, but also heighten local conflicts over resource access. Cobalt from the Lualaba region (DRC) and lithium from Zimbabwe are already at the centre of geopolitical rivalries. Coordinated African regulation, through the African Union or the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is becoming urgent to prevent unbalanced exploitation.
